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I. INTRODUCTION

1. Ce rapport est Submitted in Pursuance of communiqué PSC / PR / COMM (CDLXIII) adopté by Council at ict 463rd meeting Held on 27 October 2014 and Devoted To The Following theme: "Structural Prevention of Conflict - Reinvigorating States in Fragile Situations in. Africa ". The report Provides an update on the follow-up steps taken by the Commission with respect to the finalization of the Continental Structural Conflict Prevention Framework (CSCPF), as a tool to Facilitate a Commission-wide approach to prevention and Coordinated, as well as the development of a Country Structural Vulnerability Assessment (CSVA) tool, for the early identification of a country's structural vulnerability to conflict. It concluded, as part with observations on the way forward.

II. BACKGROUND

2. The costs of managing conflict (WHETHER fielding in peacekeeping operations, providing good humanitarian relief Lengthy Engaging in peace-making efforts or post-conflict reconstruction entreprise) are high. This further Top Lends credence to the long-standing adage that 'prevention is better than cure'. Recognising que le human, material and financial costs of prevention are far less Compared to the Devastating consequences of armed violence, the AU and the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have, over the last two Decades, Developed policies and instruments at avocation Preventing Violent conflict on the continent, both, operationally and Structurally.

3. As Council is aware, operational or live Consists of prevention measures designed to address the proximate causes of conflict or immediate, Normally taken DURING THE escalation stage of a Given conflict, Where proximate, dynamic factoring come into play. Proximate causes are factoring That are Likely to contribuer to violent conflict or further Top ict escalation. These include political factoring May (political transitions, electoral disputes, Leadership Struggles, exclusionary ideologies, growing inter-group competition); security-related factoring (intra-state changing military balance); economic and social factoring (mounting economic problems, growing economic Inequities, fast paced goal Unequal development and modernization).

4. One of the main objective of the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) is the anticipation and prevention of conflict, as icts Stipulated in Article 3. In this respect, the Protocol contains detailed provisions on conflict Direct prevention, as illustrated by the Articles Relating to the powers of Council [Article 7 (1 a & b)], the determination of ict agenda [Article 8 (7)], entry point and Modalities for Action (Article 9), the role of the Chairperson of the Commission [Article 10 (2)], the Responsibilities of the Panel of the Wise (Article 11), the Continental Early Warning System-CEWS (Article 12), and the African Standby Force [Article 13 (3d) ]. It est aussi worth recalling the provisions of the PSC Protocol on the relationship with the RECs (Article 16), the Pan-African Parliament (Article 18), the African Commission on Human and Peoples' Rights (Article 19), and civil society organisms (Article 20).

5. In communiqué PSC / PR / COMM. (Ccclx) adopté at ict 360th meeting Held on 22 March 2013, Council was Agreed number of practical steps to Facilitate Direct the discharge of conflict prevention mandate icts. Among others, mention be made shoulds Of the following:

(A) Strengthening of the linkages entre early warning and early response, qui que le requires AU policy organs falling operate with the required flexibility and Effectively act on the information Provided to em Regarding potential conflicts and crises;

(B) periodic review by Council, at least once every six months, of the state of peace and security on the continent, using horizon scanning Approaches, on the basis of the updates provided by CEWS, under AU institutions, Such As the Panel of the Wise, African and international think tanks, civil society and organisms --other stakeholders;

(C) briefings by the Commission and stakeholders --other, at least every two months, one electoral processes in Africa, as Provided for in press statement PSC / PR / BR (CCCXI) adopté by Council at ict 311th meeting Held on 16 February 2012, bearing in mind That elections on the continent-have-been more Often than not marred by violence, Sometimes leading to full-blown conflict; and

(D) operationalization of the 2009 Formula Livingstone on the interaction with civil society.

6. With regards to monitoring and Analysing proximate causes of conflict, the AU and several of the REC-have tailored Their early warning systems to the gathering, monitoring and analysis of so-called Expired event data in a systematic way. At the AU, the CEWS HAS Developed specific tools to enable the systematic and continuous monitoring of conflict, anchored on data driven analysis and based on Agreed-upon indicators. These include the Africa Reporter (focusing on incident and status reports from AU Field Missions and Offices), the Africa Media Monitor / News Desk / My Live, and Profiles module. As a share of the APSA up, the CEWS In Particular, the RECs are required to inform Council on Continuously Their Necessary activities and when to brief it.

7. The AU is cognizant of the fact That conflict prevention must include aussi a structural, strategic dimension to address the root causes of conflict. Conflict and violence in environments Develop caractérisée by structural factoring: history of past social violence, unstable Neighbourhoods, deep-seated poverty, in conjunction with societal Conditions Such As discrimination and economic deprivation / decline, political repression, ethnic polarization and various environmental and resource That May contribuer degradation problems to political instability and conflict.

8. These situations-have-been Described in different terms and a variety of Attributed To Underlying Reasons. In public and political debate, both, in Africa and abroad, reference is made to indiscriminately Often Such attributes as "fragment", "instability", "state collapse", "state inversion", "state decline", "state decay", " state failure "," weak states "," quasi states "," degrees of statelessness ". The Report of the High-Level Panel on Fragile States titled "Ending Conflict and Peace Building in Africa: A Call to Action", qui Was presented to, and endorsed by, the 22nd Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the Union or held-in Malabo , Equatorial Guinea, from 26 to 27 June 2014 [Assembly / AU / Dec.512 (XXII)] Discussed in-depth the issue of fragility. The Report "Sees fragment not have a category of states, intended as a risk inherent in the development process itself", Adding That, "in the coming period, it will APPEAR across Africa in different places and forms, national or local level at - Including in countries not classified as Currently fragile. " The Report Notes That fragility in Africa is linked to rapid urbanization, youth unemployment, inequality and social exclusion, new natural resource finds, climate change, peace building and state building processes, qui-have the potential to put unbearable strain on national institutions, Creating a risk of violence.

9. Against this backdrop, structural prevention activities shoulds support, inter alia, the balancing of political, economic, social and cultural Opportunities Among all segments of society, Contributing to the Strengthening of democratic Legitimacy, the effectiveness of governance institutions, peaceful conciliation of group interests and bridging of dividing lines Among different segments of society. When successful, shoulds Such activities lead to sustainable economic development, good governance and respect for human rights, viable political structures with the capacity to manage change without resort to violence, and healthy environmental and social conditions.

III. IN'S ON STRUCTURAL PREVENTION Pronouncements

10. Over the years, the AU HAS ADOPTED several normative instruments designed to Facilitate the structural prevention of conflicts. These instruments relates to human rights; governance and the fight against corruption; democratization processes; disarmament; terrorism; and the prevention and reduction of interstate conflicts. They Represent a consolidated framework of Commonly accepted norms and principles, Whose observance Would Significantly Reduce the risk of conflict and violence and consolidate peace Achieved Where It has-been.

11. Council HAS, one several occasions Emphasized the need for Renewed efforts Reviews towards the structural prevention of conflicts. In Declaration PSC / MIN / br.1 (CCLXXIV) on the State of Peace and Security in Africa, adopté 275th meeting at ict or held-on 26 April 2011, Council Noted That neglect by Governments of the political and socio-economic needs of the population, In Particular the youth, create the conditions Favourable to the outbreak of crises and conflicts. Council Expressed icts conviction que la 2011 popular Uprisings in North Africa shoulds be used as an opportunity for Member States to renew Their commitment to the AU's democratic and governance agenda, give added momentum to efforts Deployed in this respect and Implement the political and socio-economic Reforms are called Expired qui pour in every national Particular situation stressing the imperative of good governance, through the Strengthening of democratic and cultural institutions, respect for human rights, Upholding the rule of law and people-centered constitutions, as means clustering for Preventing conflicts and Enhancing the people's participation in Fostering solutions to the prevailing problems.

12. At its 360th meeting, Council Stressed the need to address the root causes of conflicts in a systematic and holistic Manner, and the imperative for all Member States, in line with Their Commitments under relevant AU instruments, to Work Towards ever-Higher Standards in the areas of human rights, democracy, good governance and conflict prevention, a prerequisite to Attain socio-economic development and integration on the continent. Council Agreed, dans le framework of conflict prevention icts Responsibilities, Effectively to follow-up the progress made by Member States Reviews towards the advancement of democratic practices, good governance, the rule of law, protection of human rights and Fundamental Freedoms, respect for the sanctity of human life and international humanitarian law, as Provided for in Article 7 (m) of the PSC Protocol [PSC / PR / COMM. (ccclx)].

13. Subsequently, at ict 463rd meeting, Council reiterated icts That conviction situations of marginalization, abuses of human rights, Refusal to accept electoral defeat, manipulation of constitutions, mismanagement and Unequal distribution of resources, Lack of Socio-Economic Opportunities, unemployment, as well as corruption, Among --other factoring, are potent triggers of violent conflicts in Africa. Accordingly, Council Stressed the imperative of good governance through the Strengthening of democratic institutions and culture, and respect for human rights, Upholding of the rule of law, as well as of socio-economic development, as a means clustering for Preventing conflicts and Fostering peace and stability on the continent. Council reconnu That building strong, responsive and accountable state institutions at the local and national levels That deliver essential services, as well as inclusive political processes assurer, rule of law and public security, is key to Preventing conflicts and peace building Consolidating gains.

14. Council Expressed full backing to the recommendations contained in the report of the High-Level Panel on Fragile States and requested the Commission, working with étroitement the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), and with the support of the relevant international partners, to work Actively Reviews towards the implementation of These recommendations. Council Acknowledged the establishment of Mechanisms avocation at monitoring progress in governance, Such As the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) and the UNECA-led Africa Governance Report (AGR), qui Provide early warning tools to Anticipate the occurrence of governance-related conflicts, as well as the progress made Reviews towards the operationalization of CEWS at the level of Both the AU and the RECs. More SPECIFICALLY, Council Underlined the need for:

(I) the establishment and Strengthening of responsive, accountable and strong institutions at the local, national, regional and continental levels;

(Ii) the acceleration of the signature, ratification and domestication of relevant AU instruments, as well as the implementation of sustained sensitization and popularization activities;

(Iii) the enhancement of compliance with the Existing instruments;

(Iv) the effective use of Existing Mechanisms and instruments Such As the APRM and the AGR, in order to better monitor and Improve the quality of governance in Africa; and

(V) Greater involvement of the AU Panel of the Wise, the Pan-African Parliament and the African Commission on Human and People's Rights in the overall efforts to Promote good governance and prevent prevention conflicts, in according with the relevant provisions of the PSC Protocol.

IV. CONTINENTAL STRUCTURAL CONFLICT PREVENTION FRAMEWORK

15. In communiqué PSC / PR / COMM. (CDLXIII) Council Commended the Commission for ict efforts to finalize the elaboration of a Continental Structural Conflict Prevention Framework, Following The meeting it convened in Kigali, Rwanda, from 14 to 16 June 2013, as a tool to Facilitate a Commission-wide approach to Coordinated and structural conflict prevention. Council requested That this process be expedited.

16. The design of the CSCPF Responds to the needs Following: (i) Hastening the implementation of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA); (Ii) Strengthening the coordination and Harmonization of the AU role vis-à-vis the RECs, as Stipulated in the PSC Protocol; (Iii) mainstreaming conflict prevention into the activities and programs of the Commission; and (iv) Addressing the root causes of structural or conflict in Africa Systematically more. The CSCPF is Intended to serve as a template to guide the Commission in Supporting Member States in Their structural conflict prevention efforts.

17. The Preventive Action CSCPF conceives as a comprehensive tool or Direct Involving operational steps before wide-scale violence OCCURS, as well as a strategic focus on the structural causes of conflict. While live and structural prevention REMAIN two distinct policy responses based on the kind of 'causes of conflict' They seek to address contents, each requires in order to l'autre be effective. This notwithstanding, direct and structural prevention Approaches Can Be Deployed at all issues of the conflict cycle.

18. An Inter-Departmental Task Force on Conflict Prevention has-beens Established in 2014 to mainstream conflict prevention in the programs and activities of the Commission. Ict Since establishment, the Task Force met several times HAS, HAS Developed a draft and attached action plan on conflict prevention.

V. COUNTRY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND STRUCTURAL STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY MITIGATION STRATEGY

19. In communiqué PSC / PR / COMM. (CDLXIII) Council Commended the efforts by the Commission to Develop a tool to CSVA Facilitate the identification of a country's structural vulnerability to conflict at an early stage, with special emphasis on areas are falling That in Identifying drivers of violent conflict (i) socio-economic development; (Ii) good governance, rule of law, democracy and human rights; (Iii) security sector; (Iv) environment and climate change; (V) gender and youth; (Vi) post-conflict peace-building; and (vii) transitional justice and reconciliation. Council Encouraged the Commission to expedite the completion of the CSVA process, with a view to availing this tool to Member States as Their share of national efforts to prevent prevention conflict and sustain peace and stability. The report will serve as CSVA a basis for elaborating an Appropriate Structural Vulnerability Mitigation Strategy Country (CSVMS).

a) Country Structural Vulnerability Assessment

20. Acknowledging That there are no linear paths from the root, structural causes of conflict Underlying gold to the actual outbreak of conflict, the CSVA will allow Member States to Identify potential structural causes of conflict - Such as the exclusion of identity groups and forms --other of discrimination and / or economic deprivation, enduring societal stress or various forms of long-term environmental and resource degradation, with severe implications governance, as Opposed to proximate and more immediate factoring.

21. The CSVA CSVMS tools and build on the experience and processes of the APRM of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD), the NEPAD In Particular Framework Document, as adopté in October 2001, and the APRM Principles, as at the 38th adopté Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) or held-in Durban, South Africa, in July 2002. Also of relevance is the decision of the 6th Summit of the NEPAD Heads of State and Government Implementation Committee on "Objectives, Standards, Criteria and Indicators" for the APRM, as adopté in Abuja, Nigeria, in March 2003.

22. The conduite of the process CSVA Will Be Facilitated by the Africa Prospects tool, qui est share of the AU CEWS Application suite. Africa Prospects for Assessment is designed to the vulnerability of countries to conflict, based on icts profile or set of structural indicators. The CSVA Expands on the results generated from Africa by complementing Prospects em with a narrative and explanatory analysis, Which would include reference to root causes of conflict.

b) Structural Conflict Vulnerability Mitigation Strategy

23. The CSVMS Focuses on strategic and long-term qui Measures are developed by the countries Concerned. The CSVMS is a key output of the process. It explored the dimensions qui upon the AU and the RECs can best support. The shares to be Undertaken Measures May include at regional levels to address structural / root causes of violent conflict. In Developing response strategies as possible, existing policy instruments will be AU taken into account.

c) Modalities for initiating event and CSVA CSVMS

24. While the Manual and Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for CSVA CSVMS and are yet to be Developed, the process of Generating em Would Involve The Following steps:

(I) the CSVA is generated through a request from a Member State, Addressed to the REC Simultaneously it belongs to as well as to the Commission;

(Ii) it is envisaged que la process of Producing a report CSVA Would not Exceed two months. It Would Be the carried out by The Concerned Member State with the backing and support of the Commission and the relevant REC;

(Iii) Following the finalization of the CSVA, The Concerned Member State together with the Commission and the relevant REC, will begin work was CSVMS. It is envisaged que la CSVMS Would Be Within four months completed;

(Iv) The Concerned Member States Would Be Encouraged to update Council on the implementation CSVMS process and progress made, detailing the impact of the Measures taken on structural conflict prevention; and

(V) report of the Council to the Assembly of the Union on ict activities and the state of peace and security in Africa Would include updates on the implementation of Their CSVMS, as provided by The Concerned Member States;

VI. OBSERVATIONS

25. As Council is aware, the Assembly of the Union, in the "Solemn Declaration on the 50th Anniversary of the OAU / AU," adopté in Addis Ababa, on 25 May 2013, on the occasion of the Union's Golden Jubilee [Assembly / AU / Decl.3 (XXI)] Pledged not to bequeath the burden of conflict to the next generation of Africans, setting as objective an the elimination of all conflicts by 2020 dans le framework of "Agenda 2063 - The Africa We Want" . The Assembly Expressed icts determination to anchor African societies, Governments and institutions on respect for the rule of law, human rights and Dignity, popular participation, the management of diversity, as well as inclusion and democracy. It aussi Committed Itself up to the African people, In Particular women, children and the youth, as well as persons with disabilities, at the center of the Union's Endeavours, and to Eradicate poverty. At its 430th meeting Held on 24 April 2014 on the theme "Silencing the Guns: Pre-requisites for Realizing a Conflict-Free Africa by the Year 2020 '[Press Statement PSC / PR / BR (CDXXX).], Council Agreed on the need for the elaboration of a roadmap Towards Achieving the objective set.

26. Against this background, the Continental Structural Conflict Prevention Framework Represents an integrated and Harmonized mechanism. In combination, the CSVA CSVMS processes and offer a single opportunity for the AU and the RECs to assist Member States in Addressing the challenges at hand. The aim is to practical structural currency prevention Measures. I encourage Member States to fully please use new tools thesis.

27. ict hand, the Commission will continue to take all The Necessary step to extend the required carrier to Member States, with Particular emphasis on the establishment of national peace infrastructures, Including early warning systems, to supporting efforts at conflict prevention avocation at the local and national levels, as requested by Council at ict 463rd meeting. In this regard, and Following requests from Ethiopia, Mauritania, Zimbabwe and South Africa, the Commission extended to Member States thesis technical support and capacity development for the establishment and operationalization of national early warning units, as well as Location Rooms. This includes supporting the sharing of tools for data collection and analysis, as well as conflict assessment methodologies, and the provision of training. The Commission stands ready to assist Member States --other.

28. While efforts thesis are on-going, it shoulds be Kept in Mind That structural conflict prevention can not be separated directly from conflict prevention. Council, the Commission and the Panel of the Wise shoulds make optimal use of the relevant provisions of the PSC Protocol, qui entrust em with significant powers in the area of ??conflict prevention. Equally significant is the need for Member States to extend full cooperation to the relevant AU organs. I would like, in this respect, to recall que la PSC Protocol commits Member States to extend full cooperation to, and Facilitate Action by, Council for the prevention, management and resolution of crisis and conflicts.

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Last updated by Lulit Kebede

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